Happy Holidays!

Dec 29th 2009 — Family — 10:22 pm

Melt Banana at The Palace, Missoula 12-10-09

Dec 13th 2009 — Concert Photography,Missoula,Music — 12:48 am

Last Thursday I saw Melt Banana play at The Palace. The Lion The Tamer and Deny the Dinosaur? opened. It was my first time at The Palace.

Deny the Dinosaur Deny the Dinosaur 2 Melt Banana 1 Melt Banana 2 Melt Banana 3 Melt Banana 4 Melt Banana 5 Melt Banana 6 Melt Banana 7

Multnomah and Wahkeenah Falls

Dec 12th 2009 — Portland — 10:17 am

On the way drive back to Missoula we stopped to walk a 5 mile loop at the highly recommended Multnomah Falls.

Multnomah Falls 1 Multnomah Falls 2 Multnomah Falls 3 Multnomah Falls 4 Oregon Creek Wiesendanger Falls Hil Faby Falls Hil on Bridge Wahkeenah Falls Wahkeenah Falls 2 Wahkeenah Falls 3

Northwest Jerk Fest 2009

Dec 6th 2009 — Music,Portland — 12:05 pm

Put on your skinny jeans because its time for Northwest Jerk Fest presented by Northwest Movement Magazine . These are all from the final round featuring Portland’s own Bedrock Boyz vs. The Rip City Jerks.

All you future jerkers out there can learn some new moves here.

The MC Youngster Glasses Jerking Crowd Yellow-Shirt _JMS7566-square Yellow Jerking 2 Lifeguard Lifeguard 2 Saggin Group Celebration Flip

More Oregon Coast

Dec 5th 2009 — Portland — 11:09 am

Pacific Ocean Boat Beach Woods Cliffs Trees Moon Sunset Us

Portland to Cannon Beach

Dec 2nd 2009 — Biking,Portland,Portland to San Francisco — 8:43 pm

On Saturday we drove to the coast. About an hour and a half drive from Portland.

Oregon Countryside Cannon Beach Hil and Kathleen Tillamook Rock Light Starfish Oregon Coast Breaking Wave Cannon Beach 2 Forest

Portland Day 2

Dec 1st 2009 — Portland — 10:35 pm

Hil Powell's Books Downtown Park Skyscraper From Above From Above 2 From Above 3 Hil Kathleen

Thanksgiving in Portland

Nov 30th 2009 — Portland — 10:51 pm

Wednesday evening we drove 550 miles from Missoula to Portland to spend the holiday with Hilary’s friend Kathleen. We crammed a lot into a few days and Kathleen was gracious enough to be our local tour guide. These pictures are from Thanksgiving Day.

Hil Umbrella Hawthorne St Portland Fall Uno Jenga Hil Couch Hilary Kathleen Kathleen Cliff Me _JMS6869-square

The Monty Hall Problem

Nov 20th 2009 — School — 2:11 am

The Monty Hall Problem is probably the most famous example of how the math of uncertainty can be unintuitive and rather surprising.

Time to use a bit of imagination.

You are a contestant on the game show “Lets Make a Deal” and the host, Monty Hall, presents you with the following scenario:

There are three closed doors up on the stage. One door is hiding shiny new car. All three doors look exactly the same and you have no idea where the car is.

You want that car. You NEED that car.

Monty instructs you to pick one door. After much deliberation you decide door #1.

letsmakeadeal

The game continues:

hall Monty: “Now, before we open door #1, lets see what’s behind door #3!”

No car. A goat..Interesting.

Now there are two remaining unopened doors, #1 and #2. You know one of them is hiding a car.

The game continues:

Monty: “Do you want to stick with door #1 or switch to door #2?”

Tough choice!

You think: “Should I switch doors? Should I stay? With 2 doors left does it even matter what I do?”

It is common to think that the probability the car is behind either of the remaining doors is one-half you have an equally likely chance of winning no matter what.

The surprising truth is that the preceding thought process is completely wrong. The reality is, loosely speaking, you are twice as likely to win if you switch doors. WTF?

Here’s why:

Before you decide to stay or switch, Monty always reveals a door that does not have the car. This is extremely valuable information!

To see why, think about the beginning of the game and your first choice of doors.

You have a one-third chance of picking the winning door with your initial choice. If this happens and you switch doors, you will end up with a losing door. This is relatively obvious.

Similarly, your chance of picking the wrong door initially is two-thirds. Here, if you switch doors, you will always end up with you winning the car. This fact is subtle and key to understanding this problem.

Remember how we said Monty revealing a losing door was important? If you started with the wrong door, and Monty revealed the other wrong door, then only unopened door left is the one with the car!

What this means is if your original pick was wrong and you then switch to the remaining unopened door, you are guaranteed to win.

It might be helpful to draw a crude picture of 3 doors and see what I am talking about visually.

Since, you are twice as likely to pick a losing door initially, you are twice as likely to win if your strategy is to always switch doors.

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Does switching doors guarantee you will win? Unfortunately, no. For an individual game the outcome is always uncertain. In the middle of the game you never know if your initial pick was right or not and there is no way to change this. (bribery?)

The mathematical interpretation of you are “twice as likely to win” means that if you played this game many many many times and switched doors every time, you would win about twice as many games as you would if you played those games and never switched.

The challenging nature of this problem lies in the often unintuitive realm known as conditional probability.

The question is not “What is the probability that I win if I switch doors?”

The exact question is “What is the probability that I will win given that Monty helped me out tremendously by revealing a losing door?”.

Two-thirds! Always switch!

(Don’t get mad at math if you switch doors and end up losing. For that you can thank randomness and uncertainty.)

For more insight on this problem, check out Wikipedia.

Missoula Ultimate Halloween Hat Tournament

Nov 9th 2009 — Missoula,Montana — 9:28 pm

Pictures of a rad Saturday in Missoula playing with frisbees.

The the first picture links to a gallery. The last three are pictures that were too big to include.

Missoula Halloween

Women Racing Men Racing Group Picture Large

Return to Holland Lake

Nov 1st 2009 — Montana — 10:52 am

The hike back down from Upper Holland Lake.

Snow Trees Holland Lake View Avalanche Hil Trail Hil Trees Moss Trail Walking Holland Lake Holland Lake

Holland Lake

Oct 28th 2009 — Montana — 11:23 pm

We spent last weekend at a forest service cabin near Holland Lake, about halfway between Missoula and Glacier National Park in the Swan Valley.

Saturday we did a 12 mile out and back hike to Upper Holland Lake. The hike had about 2000 feet of elevation gain, which ended up being the difference between fall and winter.

Cabin Hil Hiking Holland  Lake Holland  Lake 2 Larch Pine Heron Creek Hil Snow Trees Upper Holland  Lake Holland  Holland  Lake 2

The Mount Vernon Dredge

Oct 22nd 2009 — Ghost Towns,Montana — 10:49 pm

The Mount Vernon Dredge is an old mining relic located in Nevada City at a history of mining museum. It is a massive structure, kind of reminds me of a brontosaurus when I think about it.

Mount  Vernon Dredge Mount  Vernon Dredge Mount  Vernon Dredge Mount Vernon Dredge Sign Crane Crane

Virginia City and Nevada City

Oct 21st 2009 — Ghost Towns — 7:14 pm

Remnants of the gold rush.

Virginia City Virginia City Virginia City Barber Shop Barber Shop Sign Nevada City

The Madison Range

Oct 17th 2009 — Montana — 7:55 pm

Or “Why We Took the Long Way Home, Part 1”

The Madison Range The Madison Range Lone Peak

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